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FOREX · USD/JPY US Dollar / Japanese Yen — rates, data and positioning

USD/JPY desk.

The classic carry thermometer: US yields, BoJ policy and intervention risk drive the tape.

USD
USD/JPY · spot FX mid
163.844+0.00%
PricingSpot mid
Bid / Askbroker feed only
Day range
163.740–163.908
52w range
145.856–163.908
Daily ATR
64 pips
Trend bias
Bullish
📊 Chart loading…

Positioning · CFTC COT

large specs
67%33%
▲ Long 67%Short 33% ▼
Large speculators are net long · as of Jul 14, 2026. Extremes matter most as a contrarian read when price stops confirming.

Key levels · classic pivots (prior session)

RResistance 2163.999
RResistance 1163.921
Pivot163.831
SSupport 1163.753
SSupport 2163.663
What's driving it

Macro context.

RATES · context

US Treasury yields

Use this driver as a context filter before reading the chart.

DATA · context

BoJ policy and verbal intervention

Use this driver as a context filter before reading the chart.

FLOW · context

Risk-on carry demand

Use this driver as a context filter before reading the chart.

Positioning

Institutional COT.

INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING · CFTC COT REPORT

Forex Client Sentiment

Real non-commercial (speculator) positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report — the weekly gold standard for institutional FX futures data. Published every Friday at 15:30 ET covering the preceding Tuesday.

Data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Source: CFTC.gov
📖 How to read this data
▲
Bullish signal

More longs than shorts among large speculators. When longs exceed 75%, the trade is crowded — smart money often fades extremes.

▼
Bearish signal

More shorts than longs. Extreme short positioning (>75%) can signal exhaustion — short squeezes become more likely.

◆
Mixed / Neutral

Near-equal positioning with no strong directional lean. Wait for a catalyst to tip the balance before taking a directional view.

⚠
Contrarian tool

COT data is best used as a contrarian indicator at extremes, not as a trend-following signal. Always combine with technicals and macro context.

▲ Bullish
67% Long 33% Short
67%
net long · large speculators
Large speculators hold a majority long position. Contrarian reading: if longs exceed 75%, the trade is crowded and a reversal risk is elevated.
▼ Bearish
29% Long 71% Short
71%
net short · large speculators
Large speculators hold a majority short position. Contrarian reading: extreme shorts (>75%) can signal exhaustion and a potential squeeze higher.
▲ Bullish
67% Long 33% Short
67%
net long · large speculators
Large speculators hold a majority long position. Contrarian reading: if longs exceed 75%, the trade is crowded and a reversal risk is elevated.
USD/CHF ⚠ EXTREME
▲ Bullish
83% Long 17% Short
83%
net long · large speculators
Large speculators hold a majority long position. Contrarian reading: if longs exceed 75%, the trade is crowded and a reversal risk is elevated.
◆ Mixed
41% Long 59% Short
59%
net short · large speculators
Positioning is balanced between longs and shorts. No strong directional lean from the institutional futures market.
USD/CAD ⚠ EXTREME
▲ Bullish
87% Long 13% Short
87%
net long · large speculators
Large speculators hold a majority long position. Contrarian reading: if longs exceed 75%, the trade is crowded and a reversal risk is elevated.
▼ Bearish
38% Long 62% Short
62%
net short · large speculators
Large speculators hold a majority short position. Contrarian reading: extreme shorts (>75%) can signal exhaustion and a potential squeeze higher.
📊 Methodology

What is "non-commercial" positioning? The CFTC splits traders into commercials (hedgers — airlines hedging fuel, exporters hedging receivables) and non-commercials (large speculators — hedge funds, CTAs, and proprietary traders). Non-commercial positioning is the best proxy for "smart money" directional bets in the futures market.

Why is this contrarian? When speculator positioning reaches extreme levels (>75% net long or net short), the trade is crowded. There are few participants left to push price further in that direction, and a catalyst can trigger rapid unwinding. Historically, extreme COT readings have preceded significant reversals in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY.

Limitations: COT data is published weekly with a 3-day lag. It captures futures positioning only, not spot or OTC markets. Use alongside technicals, fundamental analysis, and the live desk signals above for best results.

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