What's moving as one.
Pearson correlation of daily log-returns across crypto, FX and macro, on a rolling window. Above +0.70 markets co-move - hidden concentration risk. Below -0.70 one pressures the other. The desk watches the breaks: a relationship that decouples is a regime clue, not a data bug.
- Window
- 7d rolling live history
- Strongest pair
- ETH / LINK+0.94 co-moving
- Cleanest inverse
- Awaiting negative correlation
- Active breaks
- 9 flagged
Correlation heatmap.
Every cell is the Pearson coefficient of two markets' daily log returns over the window. Green = co-moving, red = inverse, grey = independent. Cells outlined in amber moved at least 0.20 from the 90-day norm.
What the map is telling you.
Live reads from the current correlation board. These are decision-support notes, not predictions.
ETH / LINK prints +0.94 over the 7-day live window. Treat the two markets as overlapping risk until the relationship cools.
BTC / GBP prints +0.13 over the 7-day live window. The relationship is loose enough that local catalysts matter more than broad beta.
BTC / GBP prints +0.13 over the 7-day live window. The relationship is loose enough that local catalysts matter more than broad beta.
AVAX / TAO prints +0.86 over the 7-day live window. The pair is outside its recent norm, so the desk treats it as a regime check before sizing exposure.
Relationships that decoupled.
Pairs whose current-window correlation moved materially from the 90-day norm. No rows are invented when the norm cache is not ready.
+0.86 now versus +0.52 on the 90-day norm. The pair is outside its recent norm, so the desk treats it as a regime check before sizing exposure.
+0.65 now versus +0.35 on the 90-day norm. The pair is outside its recent norm, so the desk treats it as a regime check before sizing exposure.
+0.58 now versus +0.31 on the 90-day norm. The pair is outside its recent norm, so the desk treats it as a regime check before sizing exposure.
Confirm the regime before acting.
A correlation reading is a risk map, not a trade. The desk runs three checks before it changes a position on the back of the matrix.
Is the move backed by breadth?
Refresh the window before acting. A correlation shift on thin volume is lower quality than one confirmed across the basket.
Does the tape agree with the news?
Cross the matrix against DXY, gold, major FX and the sentiment radar. When price, correlation and narrative align, conviction rises.
Has it held into the next session?
Look for repeated confirmation rather than one isolated spike. A break that survives a full session handoff is the one that matters.
Get an alert the moment a correlation breaks.
Pipe regime shifts into Telegram, Discord or webhook - the pair, the window, the delta from norm, and the desk read attached.