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BTC $64,897 -1.40% ETH $1,868 -3.00% SOL $75.75 -2.60% XAU/USD -- -- EUR/USD -- -- DXY -- -- AVAX $6.25 -5.40% USD/JPY -- -- BTC $64,897 -1.40% ETH $1,868 -3.00% SOL $75.75 -2.60% XAU/USD -- -- EUR/USD -- -- DXY -- -- AVAX $6.25 -5.40% USD/JPY -- --
86 daily closes - refreshed 00:54 UTC - Pearson - log-returns
Analysis - mapwhich markets are one trade - and which just broke loose

What's moving as one.

Pearson correlation of daily log-returns across crypto, FX and macro, on a rolling window. Above +0.70 markets co-move - hidden concentration risk. Below -0.70 one pressures the other. The desk watches the breaks: a relationship that decouples is a regime clue, not a data bug.

Window
90d rolling
live history
Strongest pair
ETH / LINK+0.90
co-moving
Cleanest inverse
Awaiting
negative correlation
Active breaks
0
flagged
The map

Correlation heatmap.

Every cell is the Pearson coefficient of two markets' daily log returns over the window. Green = co-moving, red = inverse, grey = independent. Cells outlined in amber moved at least 0.20 from the 90-day norm.

DetectorCorrelation break >= 0.20 delta

Price correlation - log returns

90-day window - 86 daily closes - 10 markets

Window
Basis
BBTC
EETH
SSOL
AAVAX
LLINK
TTAO
AUXAU
EUEUR
GBGBP
DXDXY
BBTC
+1.00
+0.89
+0.82
+0.67
+0.87
+0.66
-
+0.19
+0.24
-
EETH
+0.89
+1.00
+0.82
+0.72
+0.90
+0.59
-
+0.15
+0.21
-
SSOL
+0.82
+0.82
+1.00
+0.78
+0.84
+0.65
-
+0.29
+0.28
-
AAVAX
+0.67
+0.72
+0.78
+1.00
+0.75
+0.56
-
+0.27
+0.33
-
LLINK
+0.87
+0.90
+0.84
+0.75
+1.00
+0.64
-
+0.23
+0.30
-
TTAO
+0.66
+0.59
+0.65
+0.56
+0.64
+1.00
-
+0.26
+0.34
-
AUXAU
-
-
-
-
-
-
+1.00
-
-
-
EUEUR
+0.19
+0.15
+0.29
+0.27
+0.23
+0.26
-
+1.00
+0.85
-
GBGBP
+0.24
+0.21
+0.28
+0.33
+0.30
+0.34
-
+0.85
+1.00
-
DXDXY
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
+1.00
-1.00+1.00
Co-moveIndependentInverseBreak
Verdict first

What the map is telling you.

Live reads from the current correlation board. These are decision-support notes, not predictions.

E/L +0.90
Co-moving

ETH / LINK prints +0.90 over the 90-day live window. Treat the two markets as overlapping risk until the relationship cools.

E/EU +0.15
Independent

ETH / EUR prints +0.15 over the 90-day live window. The relationship is loose enough that local catalysts matter more than broad beta.

E/EU +0.15
Independent

ETH / EUR prints +0.15 over the 90-day live window. The relationship is loose enough that local catalysts matter more than broad beta.

Signal - breaks

Relationships that decoupled.

Pairs whose current-window correlation moved materially from the 90-day norm. No rows are invented when the norm cache is not ready.

Flagged0 of 28 pairs
No live correlation breaks are above the 0.20 delta threshold for this window.
How to use it

Confirm the regime before acting.

A correlation reading is a risk map, not a trade. The desk runs three checks before it changes a position on the back of the matrix.

RuleRepeat > one spike
15 min - momentum

Is the move backed by breadth?

Refresh the window before acting. A correlation shift on thin volume is lower quality than one confirmed across the basket.

1 hr - narrative

Does the tape agree with the news?

Cross the matrix against DXY, gold, major FX and the sentiment radar. When price, correlation and narrative align, conviction rises.

24 hr - regime

Has it held into the next session?

Look for repeated confirmation rather than one isolated spike. A break that survives a full session handoff is the one that matters.

Get an alert the moment a correlation breaks.

Pipe regime shifts into Telegram, Discord or webhook - the pair, the window, the delta from norm, and the desk read attached.

Break alerts - full matrix - coefficients sourced from live history